NASHVILLE (BP) – Reports showing sustained increases in food and home prices alongside a cooling labor market highlight a continuing challenge for churches.
That information impacts everything from attaining goods for ministries like food pantries to hiring new staff. Inflation sits in the middle of it all and while it remains high, the rate is decreasing.
“That’s a pretty good thing,” said Josh Chastant, profile manager with GuideStone Capital Management. “The Fed has their dual mandate of price stability and full employment. So far, they’ve been able to hold interest rates higher which puts a damper on inflation.”
The other side of that equation, though, can be seen in today’s (Sept. 6) jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now demands the Federal Reserve’s attention. While the market expected 160,000 jobs to be created in August, there were only 142,000.
“The data today shows that things have started to weaken a bit,” Chastant said. “What’s more, the data from the previous two months was revised lower.”
June and July had originally shown 179,000 and 114,000 jobs added, respectively. June, however, actually brought only 118,000 jobs while July was lowered to 89,000, the weakest jobs report since December 2020.
One reason for churches to pay attention to the report is that it provides insight as to where jobs are growing.
For instance, construction employment rose by 34,000 in August, nearly double the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the last year. Should a church be located near an area with construction projects, it could signal sustained ministry opportunities for the future. It could also guide church leaders on planning for their own construction needs.
There is also the simple math that when people have a job, they have means by which to support themselves as well as give toward others. Inflation hits churches most directly when money that would have gone into the offering plate must instead be used for bread and milk.
“Churches will clearly be impacted by the same factors that hit the broader labor market,” Chastant said. “We’re seeing things like a long-term decline in demographics, for instance. As the Baby Boomers retire, there are fewer people to take on that work, and that could certainly have some long-term effects.”
The jobs report doesn’t speak directly to trends in church employment, but many churches are having difficulty finding candidates for ministry positions.
“I live in a great part of the country. Our community is booming around us. Churches are growing, and many of us are struggling to find people,” said Matt Duran, senior pastor of Indian Springs Baptist Church in Bryant, Ark. “It’s a little frustrating.”
It took two years for Indian Springs to find an executive pastor, he added. There were candidates, but none were quite the right fit.
Duran, 40, has worked to create a relational atmosphere that includes staff games of pickleball, going out to eat together and flexibility on remote work.
“We’ve developed a high level of trust, but also accountability,” he said. “I feel like that makes our church an attractive place to work.”
Inflation has definitely affected the ability to bring on new staff, particularly in regard to housing.
“We’re one exit up from Little Rock, and the prices around here are astronomical,” Duran said. “We’re increasingly having to help in areas like deposits and moving expenses.”
Although the inventory of homes has increased slightly, prices remain out of reach for many would-be buyers and are expected to remain so throughout 2025.
“It’s a definite factor,” Chastant said. “We’ve seen an incredible, dramatic slowdown in the turnover of houses. If you were blessed enough to own a home and [federal fund] rates fell to near zero and you can refinance your mortgage at a very low rate, you don’t have a whole lot of incentive to exit that mortgage and go buy another home. It creates a bottleneck, especially at the [starter] home level.”
Different challenges arise at other positions. When Whataburger and other places raise their wages, churches must follow suit to attract candidates for custodial services or setup teams. That can lead to a ripple effect of rising pay for roles such as ministry assistants to keep pace.
“Wages haven’t really kept up with costs over the last 10-15 years. So as the labor pool shrinks, there’s going to be pressure to pay more,” Chastant said, referencing the retirement of Boomers.
Food prices are perhaps the quickest way to bring grumbles about the economy. And although the growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has slowed, prices remain high.
The CPI for grocery store goods increased .3 percent from June to July of this year but reflect a 1.1 percent increase from July 2023. Similarly, food purchased at a restaurant cost .2 percent more in June than July, but 4.1 percent higher than July 2023.
There are also the occurrences for which one can’t plan. Indian Springs was hit by a tornado in 2023. The resulting impact to its insurance costs trickles into other areas.
“The cost of doing business, per se, is getting higher,” Duran said. “Our people are very faithful and our offerings are good, but your budget doesn’t reflect inflation throughout the year.”
The fact it is an election year makes such discussions all the more important, said Chastant.
“One thing to remember is that communicated policy doesn’t necessarily match implemented policy on either side of the political divide,” he noted. “But I think we can agree that there is certainty each political party will want to spend more to support the economy. There’s clearly going to be more thought on what interest rates should be in the long-term framework.”
